The eight rules of Foresight Club

Futurists do not predict the future; that’s impossible. Not even the world’s best predictive algorithms can predict the future. They can only suggest the likelihood of something happening — often in isolation of a single event or variable. As futurists, our job is to help leaders prepare for probable eventualities. If someone tells you they can predict the future, they are not a member of Foresight Club.

This one is so important that it bears repeating. Do not try to predict the future. Period.

It’s futurists’ job to help people map, understand, and navigate the alternative futures they have in front of them. And that idea — the idea that there are multiple futures is enormously powerful — and something most people are never taught to think about critically. So that’s what futurists are here to do. We systematically and creatively think about things that haven’t happened yet by scanning the environment and helping leaders begin to garden change by determining which seeds to water and what weeds to pull.

Always remember that you don’t have to accept the future that the system seems to have carved out for you. It’s up to you to consider the possible futures that lay ahead (for your business, for society, and yourself) and determine which you prefer. It’s hard to set a course for where you want to arrive until you consider what likely exists at the end of the possible paths you could take.

It’s easy to assume the future will be just like today, only with more and better technology. Although that’s likely true, it’s not the whole story. You should consider the role of technology in the future but in conjunction with a host of complex global systems, namely: social, economic, political, and environmental ones. Will climate change, societal demands for privacy, economic factors, political unrest, and cyberwars change the trajectory of how technology unfolds in the future? Yes, yes, yes, and yes (probably). The future is not a straight line, and you cannot assume the singularity — or a world where machines do all the work while you work full time on your tan — is the future.

For most people, it’s far easier to remember the past than it is to imagine the future. It’s not that people aren’t smart enough to think about the future or don’t know what they want or need; it’s because, as humans, our frame of reference is based on our past and present experiences. Psychologically most people have a hard time relating to the future — it seems like something that will happen to someone else. To help people confront the future, you have to let them experience it in the present.

By immersing people in a setting where they are personally confronted with the details of possible future scenarios, you can help them make emotional connections by experiencing possible futures at both rational and emotional levels. When people get a chance to see and tangibly experience the future, it allows them to confront their neurological and cognitive biases — and the possible futures that they might otherwise dismiss because they couldn’t imagine or weren’t prepared to contemplate them.

As a futurist, it’s important to look backward and see what trends and drivers are pushing us towards the baseline future that most people assume is coming. But it’s just as important, if not more so, to scan the horizon for those on the fringes of society toying with the future in the present. Sometimes these are industry leaders, scientists, or academics, but often these game-changing ideas come from outsiders who see a problem, and a possible solution, by looking at a situation through a completely different frame. It’s not easy to find these fringe thinkers, but if you hone your skills to know where to look and learn to ask the right questions, you’ll discover those creating the future hiding in plain sight.

If you want to make an impact on how the future unfolds, you have to take the reins by designing a strategy that will steer you (or your business, or society) towards the preferred future you want to realize and away from possible alternative futures you wish to avoid. If you choose to sit back and wait to see what unfolds — or stay too wrapped up in putting out the fires of today to give attention to where you want to be in ten years — the likelihood of reaching your ideal destination gets slimmer and slimmer. That’s true in funding your retirement, getting on a path to better health, and just about every other facet of your life. There’s no time like the present to take steps towards the future you wish to create.